Monmouth Poll: Difficult Path for 2024 Third-Party Bid

In a contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, more voters say they won’t vote for either candidate than say they will. This does not mean, however, that the American electorate is on board with a third-party presidential ticket in 2024. The Monmouth University Poll finds support for an alternative drops when the premise moves from a generic bipartisan ticket to one where actual candidates are named. The presence of a third party in the race would siphon votes from both major party nominees, but it is not apparent it would play the role of a spoiler, at least in a hypothetical situation.

In a Biden-Trump rematch, just under half of registered voters say they will either definitely (36%) or probably (11%) vote for the Democratic incumbent and 4 in 10 will definitely (26%) or probably (14%) support the Republican. Majorities, though, say they will not vote for either Biden (46% definitely not and 6% probably not) or Trump (50% definitely not and 8% probably not). These results are statistically similar to poll results from two months ago.

Electoral support for both candidates runs a few points higher than their underlying favorability ratings. Specifically, 47% of American voters are likely to vote for Biden while 43% have a favorable opinion of him, and 40% are likely to vote for Trump while 36% have a favorable opinion of him.

“In a replay of the 2020 election, some voters clearly feel they have to back a candidate they don’t really like. That suggests there may be an opening for a third party in 2024, but when you drill down further, there doesn’t seem to be enough defectors to make that a viable option,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

At this point, 3 in 10 Americans say they would entertain voting for a third-party “fusion” ticket comprised of a Democrat and a Republican. Just 5% say they would definitely vote for this option if Biden and Trump are the major party nominees and another 25% say they would probably vote third party. At the other end of the spectrum, 31% say they definitely would not support a fusion ticket and 34% probably would not.

Support for a third-party ticket drops even lower when names of possible candidates are introduced into the equation. The No Labels group has been pursuing ballot access and unveiled a policy statement this week at an event headlined by Democratic West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and Republican former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman. Monmouth tested Manchin and Huntsman as an alternative ticket in a Biden-Trump race and found that only 2% of voters would definitely vote for this specific third-party option and just 14% would probably vote for them. Moreover, 44% definitely would not vote for a Manchin-Huntsman ticket and 31% probably would not. It does not appear to matter whether Manchin or Huntsman tops the ticket. Versions of this question that flipped the two names in the presidential and vice presidential slots got nearly identical support levels.

            “We are still very much in the realm of hypotheticals, where voters’ assessment of their actual behavior can be unreliable. However, the more concrete you make an alternative to the major party candidates, the less attractive it becomes. A third-party nominee needs to capture voters’ imagination to be successful. It is not clear that such a charismatic figure exists right now,” said Murray.

            The potential effect of a so-called fusion ticket on the election’s outcome is difficult to gauge until candidates are chosen. On the surface it seems like Republican voters are more inclined to vote for such a ticket (25% for a generic ticket and 15% for Manchin/Huntsman specifically) than Democrats are (18% for a generic ticket and 8% for Manchin/Huntsman). However, when the individual poll questions about potential support for Biden, Trump and a third-party ticket are combined, the overall effect appears to be a wash. When a generic bipartisan ticket is offered as an alternative, Biden’s support drops from 47% to 37% and Trump’s support falls from 40% to 28%. With a Manchin/Huntsman ticket as the alternative, Biden’s support drops from 47% to 40% and Trump’s support falls from 40% to 34%. Interestingly, among the 13% of voters who say they will vote for neither Trump nor Biden, most say they will vote for a generic third-party ticket (9% move from neither to the third party), but that support largely disappears when the ticket is specifically named as Manchin and Huntsman (only 4% move from neither to the third party).

            The poll also asked hypothetical questions about what voters would do if they thought a third-party ticket could be a spoiler. In the case where voting for a third party could lead to the election of Biden, 39% say they would vote for Biden, 37% would vote for Trump, and 20% would vote for the third-party ticket. In the case where voting for a third party could lead to the election of Trump, 43% would vote for Biden, 33% would vote for Trump, and 20% would vote for the third-party ticket.

            “The expectation that a third-party run could tip the scales toward Biden might produce a tighter contest than when the spoiler effect is seen to help Trump. Again, these are hypotheticals. It’s impossible to predict the impact of a third-party challenge until an actual campaign is underway, when the media’s framing of it will play an important role,” said Murray.

            One argument put forward on the viability of a third-party ticket is the fact that majorities of the American electorate have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican (56%) and Democratic (55%) parties. However, only 17% hold a negative view of both parties simultaneously – and half of that number actually identify a party they dislike more than the other.  In total, 43% prefer the Democratic Party, including 39% have a favorable opinion of it coupled with an unfavorable opinion of the Republicans along with 4% who have an unfavorable view of both parties but dislike the GOP more. Likewise, 42% prefer the Republican Party, including 37% with a favorable opinion of just that party and 5% who have an unfavorable view of both parties but dislike the Democrats more.  Another 8% dislike both parties equally while 6% have a favorable opinion of both parties.

            “What voters say they want in an ideal world and how they actually act in a distrustful hyper-partisan environment are two very different things. When partisanship, particularly a negative view of the opposite party, drives voters’ decision-making, any third-party effort starts with a low ceiling for support,” said Murray.

            An important caveat in these poll findings on a potential spoiler effect is that we are not looking at likely voters. However, it is worth noting that younger voters – i.e., those who are less likely to turn out – are more likely to entertain voting for a third party than older, more reliable, voters. Also, the poll suggests there is stronger support for Biden than Trump currently, but that could change in the fall if both men become their respective party’s nominees. The impact of a third-party ticket as a spoiler could be more significant in a tight race, especially in states crucial to the Electoral College count.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from July 12 to 17, 2023 with 910 adults in the United States. The question results in this release are based on 840 registered voters and have a margin of error +/- 4.9 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-10 previously released.]

[QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED]

11.    Is your general impression of the Republican Party very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

12.    Is your general impression of the Democratic Party very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

[The following question was asked of people who have an unfavorable impression of BOTH parties.] 

13.    When you think about it, do you dislike one of these parties more than the other, or do you really dislike both parties equally? [If DISLIKE ONE PARTY MORE: Which party do you dislike more – the Republicans or the Democrats?] [CHOICES WERE ROTATED]

TABLE PRESENTS THE RESULTS COMBINED WITH PARTY FAVORABLES from Q11-12.

[QUESTIONS 14 & 15 WERE ROTATED]

14.    Is your general impression of Donald Trump very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

15.    Is your general impression of Joe Biden very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

16.    How likely are you to vote for Donald Trump – will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?